Tend to agree with what everyone here has said, so I won't repeat the obvious. I think this one will be slow to develop, which may not be such a good thing. The shear, SAL and dry air seen on this wv loop seem to be taking their toll at the moment. At this rate, I doubt we'll have a system before the weekend is over (as HF pointed out), and as of this post, there is not an invest, so probably not until tomorrow.

I'm not buying into the GFS just yet, despite it's rather good record this season; I think this does become TS Frances before 40W, but no more than that. If it does make it to 40W at that intensity, then we may have a problem on our hands. Way too early to say we have a problem, only that at this point in the season, late developing CVs must be closely watched. I'm rooting for a fish spinner, but am going the slow development route...I hope I'm wrong (I haven't had crow for a whole week, so I'm hungry).

Happy birthday shout out to COOP, and go check out the storm forum and take the HF challenge.

Cheers,

LI Phil