taking down frances.. another brilliant french idea, right up there with the maginot line (although not as dumb as freedom fries, i must admit). still no invest in the atlantic.. a full 24 hours after i'd have expected. wave near 25w probably has a broad surface low and i very much expect it to be a tracked invest tomorrow, and possibly a classified system by noon tuesday. it's just doing everything more slowly than i'd have expected.
future track past 3-4 days is iffy. should it be a tropical cyclone by later in the week, the atlantic ridge have a weakness in the middle out near 40-50w. the upper ridge building westward with it should yield to a strong subtropical/TUTT type jet tearing ENE out of the caribbean in it's path.. a classified system will respond to this by turning right. once past that.. though the gfs fails to indicate this.. the strong deep layer ridge near the east coast should draw it back westward underneath.. that's what i'm expecting with the system, anyhow.
various stuff in the subtropics merits watching, with nao positive setting in. danielle's remnants and the mid-upper system immediately to the west have a chance to deepen as they are drawn northward into a baroclinic system (the trough that will weaken the atlantic ridge in the middle).
near the east coast frontal remnants are going to be hanging offshore under an upper ridge all week.. pretty much every one of the globals is forecasting low pressure to form off the east coast.. nothing deep at this point, but globals don't handle tropical development very well anyway, only point to it's potential in most cases. anything that forms out of that this week will be bothering someone, probably in the carolinas.
caribbean wave vanished as quickly as it blossomed yesterday.. very little chance it will do anything.
eastpac invest 98E is getting very active, more signs mjo is coming into play.. waves that look totally inconspicuous are likely to perk up as the influence of negative mjo becomes stronger.
globals looking very funny as of late.. possibly an offshoot of some strange weather anomalies we've had this year. confidence is lower than usual..
HF 2359z22august