we're past the dog days.. time for some longtracker action. invest 96L i'm slating to be the first longtracker of the 2004 season.. danielle didn't get far enough west to really qualify. gfs seems to be slowly coming around to my way of thinking(mostly, anyhow).. no longer feeding the invest into the mid oceanic trough. figuring on a stair-stepping track with it.. probably will move mostly northwest once it develops, for the first few days.... then contend with the upper trough.. then come west under whatever ridge is in the western atlantic. this will take days to happen, and it's useless to say how much ridging will be near the east coast later in the forecast period as the model resolution is low and changes with every run. timetable hard to nail down because the system is hanging on the itcz and broad.. expected a classified system by now.. but still should be by wednesday.
various globals indicating low pressure will develop east of ga/sc in the next couple days; energy left behind by the shortwave currently exiting the region. another case of hard-to-nail timetable.. but definite development potential with this feature by week's end. region from sc up to new england would potentially be affected by said system, variables of intensity and location of development to be worked out.
danielle still trying to redevelop.. still slim chances. it's under too much shear to hold down a cdo.. as it accelerates it may begin to hold some banding convection for long enough to re-intensify some.. of the opinion it shouldn't have been operationally downgraded to begin with, but not losing any sleep over it either.
subsequent waves emerging off africa are being picked up on and developed by globals, but the specifics are unreliable for now. suffice to say we could easily have a frances from 96L and another development by labor day weekend.
frank rapidly developed today in the eastpac, and t.d. 9e is trying to perk up as well.. estelle's counter starts on the 24th and runs through the 29th.. the new systems in the eastpac may be telegraphing development from the 28th through september 2nd. also, soi going positive for the first time in a while. subsequently nao positive phase may linger for a while, give us some of those meandering longtrackers.. and keep the potential for subtropical development active.
HF 2314z23august