always more likely that any given storm out there will recurve, but those early progs by gfs were sorta off-looking... whatever part of the pattern that may be planning to tug this baby out away from land probably hasn't been identified yet.
expecting a named system tomorrow. the convection looks solid and intense like a particular invest 98E did last night, about eighteen hours before it became hurricane frank. not expecting that rapid a development, but do think 96L is well on it's way to being a tropical storm.
gonna keep harping on the close-in development potential.. frontal wave currently east of the carolinas is peeling out.. models identified it and are taking it out on the tail of the shortwave.. whatever is left behind it should stick out there for the next few days and try to develop. we should have an idea of the particulars by wednesday afternoon.
danielle's convection is going off stronger than it has for days, now that the nhc outlook has stated it's redevelopment chances are closed. diffluent path near the exit region of that upper low to the northwest.. did the trick. danielle may redevelop briefly tuesday into wednesday.
feel safe in saying this: we're looking at 2-3 new systems in the last days of august.
HF 0434z24august