sort of amazed ssd hasn't rated 96L yet. be kind of unusual for a system to go from unrated to a classified system. agree this should be a depression at 5pm.. solid convection, some banding features, obvious wind closure in the low cloud field nearby.. far be it from me to understand why this won't be t.d. 6 at five.
my version of the forecast for this thing is as such: wnw around 15 to past 40w early thursday, nw til the weekend.. mid oceanic trough fills, west early next week. it's that simple. intensity harder to prog.. think hurricane by thursday, but conditions deteriorate during the weekend as it gets some upper sw-erly shear (unless my track idea is badly mistaken).. then recovering conditions next week as it goes westward under the ridge. this will probably, almost surely, be a track north of the islands.
there is a low forming east of jacksonville/brunswick today, around 30.5/80. some upper westerly shear present.. which ought to slowly taper down over the next couple of days. i'm thinking this feature is the development threat for this week near the east coast. should remain quasi-stationary through early thursday, possibly begin taking on a tropical appearance. slow developer if it's going to do anything... if the model ideas are right it should move north or nnw.. affect the carolinas friday or into the weekend.
nothing much else. danielle hasn't redeveloped. weak wave ahead of 96L noted in the discussion as having a piece of trough to the north. lower end may flare up as it nears the islands later on, upper end as it nears the mid oceanic trough. expect little though. models still developing the wave following 96L, but it's still a day or two from exiting.
HF 1854z24august