Hey everyone-back posting here for the first time since pre-Charley in Florida. We were okay in our location...but a couple of trees were blown down in our back yard (away from house, fortunetly). Additionally, we were without power until the Monday after the storm hit. Boy did it get hot in the house...back to tropics!

96L is pretty interesting at this time. It isn't developing as quickly as some thought it was this morning, although I'd say it is safe to bet on TD 6 coming into official existence by 11:00 PM this evening or 5:00 AM tomorrow morning. Looks like the low may be experiencing a dirunal decrease in convection, although the very last IR image showed new convection forming near the center. The shear environment ahead is looking quite favorable, which should allow for a steady strengthening after the system really gathers itself. This leads me to my next point...

The center of this system is low at this point, latitude-wise. The lastest sat images don't really show much in the way of a northerly component in the track yet. The latest GFS run shows the system curving towards the nw and n from 40-43 W. I pretty much agree that this will begin to track with a more northerly component by then, but how much of a northerly component will depend on how strong the system is as well as how much the Central Atlantic ridging breaks down. Also...the system may not get pulled northward rapidly, but it may do so under 10 mph. If this does indeed occur, I'll have serious doubts as to whether any possible troughing would be around long enough for the storm to be completely picked up.

Like some others on this board, I think that there exists a decent chance that this system turns more westward in the long-range. Don't be surprised if NHC forecasts fish at first...followed by more westerly tracks.

Hey, though, 96L could just as well fall apart!