it'll be a trip if this forecast track with the first advisory of td six plays out. fifteen degrees west over five days, in the deep tropics.. that's some kind of slow. if i had to make a best guess right now i'd shift the nhc forecast track slightly left and give the storm a good deal more westward progression by the end of the period.. to around 500 miles east/ene of the virgin islands. there's been a good deal of variation in the model strength of the ridging progged near the east coast past the forecast period.. if the storm gets underneath it the ultimate progression is still uncertain (every other run erodes the ridge enough to keep the coast clear, but a number show enough to take it all the way west by labor day weekend).
still fairly convinced on close in activity later this week off the southeast coast. thinking very close in, but some model runs indicating that their may be a consolidation further east, out near 70-75w. just a broad unfocused area of disturbed weather at this point.
that's about all i can say. aside from: new thread on the way.
HF 0302z25august