worried is a bit of a stretch on this end. i've got reason to believe the picture we're currently seeing is going to get a lot more complicated. there is threat potential.. but the pieces haven't come together yet, and we need a few more of the big ones before the worry starts here.
i'm nowhere near 100% on what's happening just off the coast in my home state. that could easily be a weak, clueless low, or get organized and spin up into something bothersome over the weekend. right now i'm favoring the latter, but not confident in any sense. if either the low southeast of charleston or the low south of bermuda develop, it will greatly confuse the picture upstream of frances.. the ridge in the western atlantic will not be a solid driving force but frayed at the edges.
frances of course has major longtracker written into it's future, but that's nothing special per se.. it is forecast to track close to the islands at a westward trajectory.. and many of those threaten the east coast when they do that.. but by no means do all. gfs is the crystal ball we gaze into for answers, and it still alternately recurves it and drives it straight across florida.. or takes it into the carolinas. until it stops changing its mind every run we won't have the foggiest, other than just a deepening storm with threat as a caption. assuming an inertial path off the forecast track, the storm will be near the east coast around september 4th.. so until about monday or tuesday we won't be close enough in for the models to start drawing a convincing picture. for this weekend, watch and wait... unless you're in the virgin islands and the storm makes a habit of staying left of the forecast track.
just to be presumptive, yes, there is a good chance gaston pops up somewhere prior to the closure of august. just to add fuel to the fire, soi staying negative almost all august has brought some significant warming to the western pacific, and the atmosphere should be transitioning to a weak el nino as autumn sets in. the breakneck pace we've set in august may be clipped off sometime in october.
HF 0004z27august