I posted on Tuesday morning that based on Frances current position, speed, strength, model runs and climatology, I gave the system about a 50/50 chance for either fishing or affecting the CONUS.... for the past two days everything has consistently shifted west.... this is still NOT etched in stone by no means, but I'm starting to up that probability that someone will experience a close encounter of the most unwelcome kind for the CONUS, if not a direct hit....

critical to me will be the strength of the Bermuda high at the time interval when Frances enters the Bahamas.... a strong ridge would not bode well at all for Florida, especially from the SE coast to central area, and a strong ridge could also eventually send this thing into the GOM.. similar to a Andrew track....a weaker ridge, then the track goes more north, GA, SC, NC... pick em.... strength of the ridge will be a such key factor.... ridge falls apart..... then we might all be OK... .not betting on this one at the moment..

also another wild card factor which could play a hugh role in all of this....will there be any strong fronts work down off the SE coast.... a timing issue.... does Frances slow down at any time... which could allow time for a front drop down, although not that likely this time of the year.... something to consider ..... and could draw Frances more to the north.....

a lot of unknowns.... still... but needless to say it will be watch by a plethora of people, and after Charley, I would expect areas under hurricane warnings, if they come to fruition for the US, will not get the apathetic treatment that Charles received... if this is a major hurricane threatening to strike the CONUS you will see the largest evacuation ever undertaken... so if your in the zone and the evacuation order is given... a word to the wise... don't wait to long to go....this should be a most interesting week for storm tracking... this has been a most interesting hurricane season to boot...