>>new oar-leeens

That's New Or-Lee-uns /get it straight.

Frances is a curiosity. I haven't been paying nearly the attention to her that I should, but my nights have been spent vegging on the couch watching the Olympics. I did catch Stacey Stewart's 5pm TWD today, and it shows why he's the best of them all. He challenges himself and the reader and discusses more possibilities than any of the other forecasters. He should probably be the HMIC.

Someone posted a thread on S2K today asking for some morning line predictions. Usually this would be too far out. But I was bored at work and took a look at some of the historical tracks. I threw my bet behind the SC/NC border and the Outer Banks (think it will come up SW of them). But that's a complete roll of the dice. It could just as easily hit Florida or Nova Scotia. Things change and morph (fluid as bobbi always says), and you really never know what's going to happen (as anything can and usually does). I took a chance a couple of weeks ago looking at the pattern we were going into (was a Norway to Baja ridge) and wondered if the pattern repeated whether or not we'd see a couple of long tracked storms (= landfalling storms). In my mind, a ridge building to the north means westward motion. And whether that means a Hugo, an Andrew or a broken down ridge with a storm running the coast 100 miles offshore, we're just going to have to wait and see.

Bastardi's homebrew appears to have excellent support. If it fires, score him the coup (originally noted last Friday as an area to watch regardless of whether there was anything tropical there or not).

I got a feeling we're in for a kick ass next 8 weeks. America hasn't been getting hit by majors the last 10-12 years commensurate (sp?) with the number of majors that have developed. Don't say you heard it here first, but the idea has crossed my mind that we could easily see an unprecedented 2-3 more majors make landfall this year. If you count Alex (though he was only a 2 @ landfall/brush-by) and Charley, that spells a banner year for tracking and a banner year for destruction. I haven't done any research tonight except look at the Goes 12 IR. But I've been thinking. Yeah, I've been thinking.

Steve