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Appears that TPC and James may be collaborating on the Eye. Thye have increased the intensity to 80 kts or 92 mph. Making Frances very near to CAT 2 strength. The most interesting part of the discussion were the long term forecast positions. The 31/0600Z has the storm retrograding S to 21.0 and 61.5, Loss of 0.5 degrees from the 31/0000Z position. The 01/0600Z position is moved S to 21.5 and 65.0. Reflecting a loss of 0.5 degrees from the previous forecast position These are long term forecasts and are subject to change, in days to come. Looking at the lat/ longs for 30/06z to 01/06z- the track is no further north than 21.5N. The 01/0600z position, 21.5N / 65.0W, from the 5AM discussion, would be about 250 miles N of St Croix, and 360 mile E of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Not a lot of margin here! |