rmbjoe,

Frances will probably be upgraded to a CAT III at the 5:00; it might already be one now. Need to wait for the Dvoraks but they're probably 5.5/5.5 as we speak...CAT III status.

>>> Frances has slowed down. That could be a good thing for Florida as the impact from the ridge could direct it more towa rds the West, right? That would put PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba under the gun, right?

I think, at least for the time being, you have to stick with the NHC forecast...they have really been pretty spot on this year and I see no reason not to agree with the official track. Therefore, I don't see your scenario playing out for the moment. It's WAY to early to start guessing where Frances will go beyond five days (even then there are hundreds of miles of forecast error)...Stick with the NHC five day forecast for now, but realistically, the 72 hour 'window' is really the best bet.