Lets see about a rebound from the Earl disaster that 95% of us took in forcasting. 1st blown 1 of the year for me and I average 2. Thank god it wasnt a landfalling hurricane blown forcast but still I didnt expect Earl to do much in the early going, and it was a 5 day forcast, nevertheless still a X for me.
Frances is going to be the tuffest forcast of the year so faroverthe next week or so.Gaston should form over the next 12-24 hours when recon gets in there. Should be a minimum TS but might get stronger as he brushes the Carolinas sunday and head NE and picking up speed. Pressure still pretty high off SC but slowly falling. This could become a depression later this evening.
Back to Frances,,,,,,tough tough call and how I forcast these systems I give a 3 day and 5 day scope. 5 day forcast of strength(always hard to tell) and landfall or position within 100 miles of a 100 mile zone. 3 days within 50 miles of a 50 miles zone. I stay with that forcasts and if changed then its a blown forcast. For example Frances should be around 110-120mph near 18N and 60 monday afternoon. By weds aft near 20N and 70W. Winds too hard to tell do to very close prox to Hispaniola.
Models are spread out after Sunday morning12z. First the tropical suite of models generally change from run to run. Example is the A98E which is usually all over the place with the LBAR model. BAMMS generally do alittle better but overall the suite is useless. They generally dont factor in many aspects of the atmosphere for example Mid or upper lows.
Globel models generally dont pick up on strength of system out of the tropics that well and initializes them too weak and begins paths then off the correct track for a system stronger. For Frances the Nogaps has a better handle of her bringing her almost due NW between Bermuda and the Carolinas by weds, but nogaps has been to the right and will disregard this path due to it not having the strong zonal ridge forcasted over the western atlantic Sunday thru the next several days. Ukmet is farther Sw and the GFS (preferred model) is just sw of the UKmet off Hispaniola (north). GFDL is not the most reliable model (constantly changing) as its performance at times is that of the tropical model suite. This model is close to the UKmet about 150 miles nne of the GFS. Im going with the better GFS and UKmet as they have a better handle of the mid and upper ridge that is forcasted to develop and also there will be some shear keeping her a strong cat 2 of (hate to say it (weak) Cat 3). THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM IN THE SW BAHAMAS LATER NEXT WEEK. Though the forcast i give now dont go out more then 5 days. To say this is going to Carolinas isnt set no more then Texas. Florida is the U.S. first threat by Friday into the weekend next week. Remember models change and anything more then not only 5 but 3 days out will change. In the short term though i expect the NW course to continue with wobbles and a turn later tomorrow to the W near 17-18N. Scottsvb