close in: t.d. 7 is meandering.
the system is progged to go west and may or may not do this.. seeing model interpretations of invest 98L to the east indicating a binary interaction of the two. it may re-develop further south of it's current position. the nhc forecast has a recurving path.. my guess is that it will move more slowly and be less quick to respond to nearby changes in upper flow by the proximity to it's neighbor. expect it to organize at or slightly slower than indicated by official guidance and stay offshore longer as well. lots of subsidence in the area may keep it in check somewhat. may or may not get carried out by the westerlies as progged by the approaching shortwave.. potential to hang out longer than indicated.. especially if it interacts much with the system to the east.
further out: 98L.. potential system.
modeling has been less vigorous with this system, but i'm thinking it may be wrong to have less confidence. an upper vortex has drifted southwest overhead of the surface system, and like t.d. 7 it is now in an outflow-enhanced area. this system has a good chance to start developing tomorrow as it moves generally west. the more it develops, the more t.d. 7s current prog is thrown out the window. end result can easily be a system that moves NE of t.d. 7 (which should be gaston tomorrow) and gets carried out in it's stead near hatteras early next week.
thoughts on td 7 and 98L are what i'll call unique... i usually don't stray that far from the official, but have some weird ideas about these systems i can't shake. probably two courses of crow, but who's counting?
far out but getting closer: cat3 frances.
already beginning eyewall replacement cycles.. makes me doubt it will make cat 5 status.. thinking 4. purely a hunch, not something to take me to court on. long range prog right now is further south than what i was envisioning for the system early in the week.. much further south. a labor day weekend landfall of this system is what i'm going to go with. i'm not going to put in a location until the system is around 70w.. but am thinking the east coast of florida at this point. that will shift north if anything. safest bet is always the north carolina coast as a cat 2, but until i can see the floyd/isabel scenario taking shape.. and it is looking rather unlike that track (though also unlike andrew, which i keep hearing but don't buy into). we have a week to watch this thing draw closer and fine tune it.. but until modeling starts poking holes in that ridge i'm becoming convinced that somebody gets nailed.
time to go post a challenge. we've got some bullets to dodge.
i'll shorten and borrow the usual parting comment from fox news' shepherd smith: stay aware.
HF 0325z28august