| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 12:24 PM |
|
Re: So far...Frances is on track
|
Quote:
All of us on the SE US coast need to watch. Here is what the NWS of Melborne had to say in its 5 am weather discussion:
NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE FRANCES CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.
I find this interesting also: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
It appears the NHC is betting on the southern models which take Frances much closer to S. Florida rather than the models showing a turn to a more northerly track. Having just gone through the eye of Charley here in E Orlando, several of my neighbors 'homes' (mobile home) are now in a dumpster...or the pieces are, and if Frances does hit almost anywhere on the E Coast of Florida, then recurves as the 'northern models' suggest, just later, this one could also find a way to add to the debris of my neighborhood using my now dented mobile home as additional missiles. I hope the NHC is wrong and it does recurve as some of these models suggest, but I fear they are right.
Does anyone have info about how well the UKMET model has done on this storm? It shows a bias toward Central East Coast of Florida. If the enclosed URL is any indication, the NHC and the UKMET are in close agreement.