SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND T.D. SEVEN...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL THE WAY
UP TO 300 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS...DUE TO THE WSW FLOW.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

Basically Frances is espected to take the path of least resistance, and should track around the outer edge of the high pressure ridge... IF it move back northward as discuss above, then Frances will be on the lower edge being steered off to the west or wnw or nw, depending on the position and strength of the ridge..