The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers. It has played to the left most of the time while the UKMet has played the right side. It's the UKMet that's coming toward the GFS, giving a reason to not quite make this a Carolina problem just yet. Five days ago I think some models thought this was going to be a fish, most havn't had a good read on the ridge to the north. We shall see...

Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?