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The GFS has stayed with this S/FL-Keys scenario for a few runs in a row, which makes you think it can't be completely bonkers.
Anybody want to let me know if they think Frances has lost some of that north movement this morning, or is the sun playing tricks with the visable sat pics?
Just looked at the WV loop...still NW movement so far as I can tell. As for the GFS vs UKMET, so far as I've seen so far, only the GFS is picking that scenereo...or am I missing one. I'll be interested to see if the UKMET (and the NHC) keep trending toward this solution. My problem is that the ridge extending S and W early in the week then retreating by mid-week, gives Frances time to recurve back to the North-NW just in time to still make a SE coast landfall either via Florida or just missing it. At least it seems this way at present. It's all a guess and the best guessers so far have been the NHC, but being human, they can and do make mistakes so we all need to stay informed. This could affect any one of us real soon.
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Re: Interesting 00 GFS model run