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I am reading everyone's discussions on Frances but I still see the NHC track trending more and more towards the lower Florida Eastern Coast aka Key West and Miami - is there going to be a sharp turn in there and pulls her up the to the Eastern Coast? Just curious?
Yes it will turn. The question is timing. The ridge to the NE is building which will delay the turn, pushing the storm to the west. By mid-week, it is expected to receed to the north somewhat. This should pull the storm around its' left end, north west or even NNW. As Frances has slowed somewhat, it may still be far enough east so that the curve brings it off the East Coast of Florida by Saturday. If it speeds up however, that turn could be heading toward Mobile per the GFS. I think the NFS is holding their course till a trend develops they can put their finger on. Most of the models I've seen show a N-NW turn mid-week. The main difference is how far west before that happens.
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