I think they are not buying the GFS solution about going to the GOM just yet either. It does sound more like they think the Floyd analagy is closer to the truth.

I don't think the GOM is likely to happen either. That being said.....this has been a very strange season in which a lot of the old rules have gone by the wayside. Bertha/Floyd are good storms to go by if you believe that's whats going to happen, but this year the unusual has happened so often (7 named storms,3 majors all in the month of August???) and the patterns, to say the least, have not been the norm. I just can't buy into a Carolina landfall at this point; I'm not convinced this storm ever makes a hard turn to the NW again (I believe it's coming back to WNW right now as I type) until it hits something on the east coast.