Recon went out to Gaston and found something much more than a minimal tropical storm...they almost found a hurricane.

Vortex message is reporting an extrapolated 996mb pressure with max flight-level winds of 59kt. They estimated surface winds of 60kt -- just below hurricane intensity.

Frances is taking on the classic donut look more and more with each passing hour. Outflow is very good in almost all quadrants. Recent images show a wobble back to the west, but that's probably just temporary in the short-term. The eye is well defined and I don't doubt that we may have a borderline cat-4 hurricane here with the next advisory. The appearance reminds me more of Isabel nowadays, but the track isn't the same. Still anywhere from Key West to Virginia needs to watch this one...I'm leaning towards the SC or FL coastline, but that's nothing more than a hunch.

Many, many, many planes will be in Frances tomorrow and the following day. 6-hr fixes at low levels are scheduled starting at 18z tomorrow; another Air Force plane will be in at 0z on the 30th flying at 31k-35k feet; the NOAA9 plane will be in Frances at 43k-45k feet at the same time; the G-IV will be heading around the storm on the 31st at 0z; a WC130 surveillance mission will be in Frances on the 30th at 18z; a P3 mission with SMRF will be heading in on the 30th at 18z; and finally, a buoy deployment mission ahead of the storm will take place on the 30th at 18z (until the 31st at 0z) within 100 miles of 22.5 N and 67 W.

As a researcher into tropical cyclones, I'm excited - nay, giddy - about the possibilities this is going to provide. My focus is on extratropical transition for now, but the amount of data that is going to come out of these missions is astounding. The end of the weekend and start of the week should be fun -- let's see where we're at then in terms of landfall & intensity. Unfortunately, cat 5 is not out of the realm of possibility...sooner rather than later.