Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 28 2004 08:02 PM
Re: Gaston nearing hurricane strength

Unfortunately, no. All that the recon can do is provide updates on the current intensity and structure of the storm; it's left to forecasters to use their own skill and the available products (models, observations, etc) to make a forecast. It's noteworthy to note that this is the second blown forecast of a storm in this region this year -- the recon's "flight level" was just a few hundred meters, meaning it's very likely we have a high-end tropical storm at 5pm, blowing past the forecasts. It's track is still up in the air.

However, the strength of this storm may well have an impact on the future track of Frances. As Gaston is picked up by the approaching trough to the west and becomes extratropical, a boundary may well be left behind/strengthened by the merging/extratropical transition process. How far south this extends and how long Gaston lingers around will play a role in whether or not it affects Frances. It's yet another kink thrown into the future forecasts of Frances that the NHC - and, well, most of us - did not expect.



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