Spent a good part of the day going over old storm tracks from a great book a good friend sent me. Historical Climo Series. As wonderful as playing with unisys online (and others) its not the same as a book you can flip back and forth and absorb the info better. I think.. good book, good friend. And...this is what I have come up with...

Following certain parameters...
Finding years with storm tracks through the S Carib.
Finding years with a hit on Florida west coast.
Finding years with sw to ne oriented hits on S. Carolina/Ga region
Finding storms in the current area (or extrapolated might have been before sat imagery)

This is what I find most interesting.

1871... storm in late August..
Comes in through the islands and makes a nw curve up over... into GA
That year features two NW florida hits but higher up...

1885... storm shows that it formed north of PR but there is no way of knowing if it started earlier. Shows a ridge in place and storm takes a sudden turn up and off and barely touching the Florida coast and coast into South Carolina.

That year had a storm come across Cuba into the Tampa/W Coast area as well as several storms fly through Ga on their way back out to the Atlantic from the Gulf. Though we didn't have much of a Gulf season and that one did.

1893... a Year no one wants to repeat. Ever especially in Ga/SC.

A storm going NW through Florida out thru GA to ocean and a storm from a similar place following similar projected path but turning in the Bahamas up the Florida coast and slamming into Ga/Sc region. Bad storm. Killed a lot of people. Infamous in that region. Acutually had two similar storm paths both hitting SC after heading towards Florida with a hard right turn.

1899
Storm went through the islands... moved up David like but went into South Carolina after a strong hard right turn. Also fetured a storm going through W Florida.

1937
Storm comes towards Florida from SE at a cord close to where Frances could be tomorrow or the next day. Moves around a ridge and ends up pulling nnw up towards just north of the Cape.. say Daytona.. That year featured a storm moving across FL after a hit near Tampa.

1960...
Donna.. any "up and over the island" track reminds us of Donna.

1964
Dora... Dora came in higher than Frances is but did take a path similar if a high builds in..

And features Cleo that took a path lower and came up from a much lower position than where Frances is so..discounting but mentioning. More concerned on Dora track though that is very different from current NHC thinking so..not really a big possibility.

All in all 1899 and 1893 are the two years that I think most reflect this year.

There are many years where a storm threatened from a similar place but I tried to choose years which had tracks that I thought this storm is and could continue following with similar other aspects.

Personally.. think it makes a hard right just before South Florida.. closer than Floyd. Worry more on say WPB to Melbourne in that turn but think its very possible a track similar to the infamous 1893 storm could occur.

Take care... I wish everyone here lots of luck.. we'll all need it.

Bobbi