According to Norcross. Said that it seems NHC expects Frances to go a little slower as it approaches bahamas/florida and there fore they pulled back timing so cone looks further offshore.

Reiterated ...could go NW at that point or keep coming.

Said... Gaston could leave slowly and leave a low pressure area between the two highs (one over SE US and one over Atlantic) and Frances could take it or... Gaston leaves faster and the high fuses together. (my own wording to shorten a long explanation) eww.. anyway..

So... that was what I understood was the change.

Storms often stall there when steering currents slip away. Betsy, Bonnie and I think Donna stalled a bit too.

Had thought of 1893 track when thinking Frances could turn north just off shore but... didnt realize that the year I think has other similar tracks. Will see. Hate to put it there.. felt sick thinking on it however.. deaths at that time were caused by no warning and people living on low lying barrier islands.. which would be different as far as loss of human life vs economic impact.