man, you really are a night owl. storm has probably deepened some more since the last advisory, d rating supporting a minimal hurricane and radar presentation looking about the same to me. 5am advisory will probably bump the system up to hurricane status.. it's window for intensification is closing though as its circulation begins to move onshore. my landfall point was initially tybee/savannah, then edisto sound, now.. looks like isle of palms, sullivans island, or bulls bay. didn't handle that one too well... intensity will probably be close though.
98L looking more ragged than earlier, wouldn't be surprised if next d numbers drop, unless the convection refires. westward steering with this system should deteriorate from here on, though it may get quite close to the hatteras area.. low may open up or entrain ahead of gaston. just the same a solid convective burst could drive the system to tropical storm status.. gulf stream ahead so this is possible.
frances a cat 4.. no surprise. fluctuations from here out.. talk of the cat 5 status exists but that's something i have to see to believe. cat 5s are such rarities it's sort of unkosher to forecast them, official or not.
watching chaba's path as it nears japan. should it teleconnect the primary threat area will be florida to south carolina.. labor day weekend of course. my primary is the east coast of florida.. with the margin of error to the north if anything... not going to bet on south florida below west palm beach. 3-4 range.
HF 0821z29august