The latest (0600) NRL map http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html shows a very decided turn in the thinking of the NHC. The forecast depicted here shows not hitting the Bahamas in the central islands on it's path to Miami, but possibly missing the Bahamas entirely (except possibly the northern most island). Extrapolation of the new path could bring it in north of Daytona and given the curve shown, extrapolation of that could mean missing Florida. What do you suppose they are seeing to cause this rather drastic forecast path change back to the north? Is the ridge being weakened by a combination of Gaston, a wannabe depression to it's east and an ULL sort of in-between the two? Or, as LI_Phil has stated, this is part of a stair-step and the track will shift back west soon? Your thoughts...any pro's out there that could comment would also be welcome. As we are now within a 5 day forecast period for the Bahamas, at least, maybe it is less speculation to ask now what gives?

Additionally, the UKMET http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif has moved north and the extension to it doesn't bode well for most of Florida, but the new NHC track is well north and east of even that.... Did we miss something while we slept last night?