Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 29 2004 01:09 PM
Re: Frances

The NHC has some internal guidance, but not an awful lot. Most of what they have (besides the BAM series, the A98E, the LBAR, etc) are either derived model-consensus models (such as the GUNA and GUNS consensus, both of which take four models - the GFS, UKMet, NOGAPS, and one other) or items like the FSU Superensemble, which is similar to a model consensus but differs in some ways. They also get the ECMWF output, which I don't recall is publicly available. But, they do reference most of what they use from time to time in discussions.

It is worth noting, however, that the FSU Superensemble has been hinting at a slight turn to the NW towards the end of the period lately and that the NHC official track has been following that model fairly well with this storm. The model consensuses like the GUNA/GUNS work such that the left-most and right-most tracks get averaged out into a track that appears to suggest a turn to the NW. It's not the ideal method to obtaining a track, using an average, but it tends to perform better than any of its member models.



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