Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 29 2004 01:20 PM
overall tropics

Looks like Claudette did last year on satellite image and that we may have another post-analysis upgrade to a hurricane like with Claudette in the Caribbean last year, as well as Erika

Gaston

Frances appears to be feeling the affects of southerly shear, which may keep it from developing further for a few days; the eyewall is starting to look a bit ragged compared to hours ago
Frances

98L could be a TD later today, as convection has again fired up around the center
anyone else's thoughts on this one?

98L

note the LLC at the northern part of the convection
probably will be a TD at 5pm, likely (if ever a TS) no more than 40-50 mph

also, here are some forecasts:

AVN predicting that Frances will likely head towards the Keys in about 6 days, and that there will be a TS at about 30W at that time

GFDL is forecasting Frances to brush the northern Antilles in about 48 hours and be about 250 miles east of Cape Canaveral in about 5 days moving NNW

UKMET is forecasting Frances to hit the Keys in about 5 days and move up the west coast of Florida after that




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