i've been seeing that rightward motion nhc has added to the terminal track every other advisory. my interpretation is that there will be another stair-step in the track like the one frances just completed. models vary on the profile/orientation of the western extent of the ridge, and some run to run variability exists on whether there will be enough for the storm to drive headlong into florida or slant nw and hit somewhere in the carolinas. also seeing upper weakness/trough to the east, and potential northern gulf activity that eta has been showing for the last couple of days.
i'm not sticking a pin anywhere until the tue-wed timeframe, until the globals better resolve the western extent of the ridge. note that soi is solidly positive for the first time this month, and typhoon chaba made a late left break before curving up into japan.. this in my mind will teleconnect to a storm with a stair-step around the bahamas. also note that chaba is significantly weaker as it nears japan. don't think that quite the same dynamics will exist as in the westpac, but maybe frances will be a cat 3 instead of a 4.
gaston is onshore. that's one of the most well-defined tropical storms i've seen. apparently wsr-88d velocity data didn't show any hurricane strength winds at the surface, but i'm betting post-analysis will indicate a small area along the coast in bulls bay.. also the unofficial reports of 988/985mb pressures in the area may play into a future upgrade of gaston.
should have td 8 later today with 98L. convection sputtered overnight but is a solid, halfmoon-type cdo today. the system appears to be slowly strengthening and beginning a right turn. should pass around 50-80 miles east of hatteras monday and come close to nantucket on late tuesday. have a hunch this will be tropical storm hermine.
disorganized thunderstorm activity in the gulf has little in the way of vorticity working in the area, but a slight to moderate chance of low pressure forming in the area (several models indicate this).
wave coming off africa and the itcz turning near 30w are the front runners for the next named storm behind 98L. gfs developing a system in the area... unclear if they'll merge or act independent of one another. the trailer system appears to have a rudimentary mid-level circulation to it, and an impressive if not overwhelming convective signature, so quite likely that another tropical cyclone will be forming in the eastern atlantic as we approach labor day.
since the early recurvature option went out the window, frances has been more or less mirroring the nhc track. there are days to go, but the alarm is growing.
HF 1732z29august