Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 29 2004 06:04 PM
Re: Frances

cat -- well, it's not my site, so credit should go to the pods and admins of the site for the job they do!

The NHC has some model data that is proprietary and there were models calling for Charley to make landfall where it did, but that was 3 days prior to the storm making landfall. They oscillated back and forth until near the time it actually did make landfall, as the potential error for just a slight jog to the east or west was huge. Some other places (I think Accuweather being one) have their own proprietary models, but the validity of those is questionable at best until you can actually see for yourself what they are doing.

Unfortunately, by nature, those models are proprietary. The ones that the NHC has, they pay good money to get and don't want the information freely available. That's why you won't see FSU Superensemble forecasts anywhere but a brief mention from the NHC -- FSU gets good money from the govt. to keep it under wraps. Similarly in the commercial sector, Accuweather makes good money off of their products to hundreds of local broadcast stations across the nation. Thus, in either example, it's unlikely you'll see those products freely available for some time to come, making official verification difficult.



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