Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 29 2004 03:58 PM
Re: glad sight is back up

I'm glad this site is back up as well, Lois. Here's a fairly interesting statement from NWS discussion this afternoon (Melbourne office):
THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED FRANCES HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER FRANCES W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN FRANCES TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND GFS DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

Does the NHC coordinate tracks beyond 120 hours with the NWS?



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