three active systems of tropical storm strength today.. first time that's happened since september 26, 2002.
going to condense gaston and hermine.. gaston dropped to depression status at 8pm edt, should track far enough inland so that it doesn't reintensify. if the circulation begins to elongate hermine's small circulation to the east may not be absorbed as soon as forecast. the northeasterly shear impacting the system should end before it leaves support ssts around 37N.. possible it may deepen enough to be a discrete system approaching southeastern new england on tuesday.
recon fixes and data indicate frances is weaker.. eye has been growing less symmetric and become a bit cloud filled today.. probably a combination eyewall contraction and mild vertical shear. forward speed has slowed and the system has wobbled, as the eye structure is periodically unstable and the solidifying subtropical ridge is engaging the system.
my take is that it oscillates between cat 3-4 for the next day or so, but as the system accelerates back to 10-12kt forward speed it should stabilize and deepen to solid 4 status.. perhaps 5.
modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point. model handling should improve drastically over the next two days and by tuesday afternoon i'll be ready to specify a strike point with some skill.
anywho..
disturbed weather in the northern gulf merits a glance but in no rush to organize. very low probability.
wave exiting africa should be an invest inside 36 hours.. that's my perp for the next system.
to get an idea of which models to trust, pay attention most to the ones who change the least over the next run.. with the new recon data.
HF 0035z30august