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modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point.
HF, you as well as anyone here on the forum knows that with a storm that has hurricane force winds extending 85 mi (at this time) from center, even a brush along the coast will expose a tremendously large area to hurricane force winds and virtually all but the extreme NW corner of the state to TS winds. We all need to remind ourselves that a hurricane track isn't a line, it is a swath. While the effects diminish with distance, people 10 or more miles inland (with a 20 mi eye) will experience eyewall conditions and that is if the eye doesn't actually go inland beyond the half-way point. CIties as far inland as St Cloud, East Orlando, Jaxonville and points north would likely experience CAT III or high Cat II winds. One way or another, it appears likely that Florida will suffer the effects almost state wide of a 2nd major storm. Are you aware of any other historical data where this has happened in the past? 1871 near Cocoa, I think had 2 storms in as many weeks, but I don't think they were majors.???
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Re: triad on the 29th