Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the NHC's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.