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Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the NHC's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.
Yup, and that is precicely why I and a lot of others here in Central Florida are getting antsy...the NHC *has* been doing a credible job so far this year, including Charley. My only criticism even with that storm was the 'envelope of error' wasn't stressed enough. That envelope basically did allow the eye to go near Orlando, but the delays in getting the word out to the public about the *actual* path meant that a lot of people went TOWARDs harms way and none of the trailer parks were notified of even voluntary evacuations with a still Cat II storm coming overhead within a couple of hours. If any were warned, I haven't heard about it. I pray we will get more warning this time, if such a thing is possible. Me and the cat will make our decision at least 24 hours in advance if there is any reasonable chance our area will experience hurricane force (or worse) winds.
At least, if the storm does pass to our East, the wind will be form the opposite direction, and all of the debris from the destroyed trailers in my park will be blown back to where it came from.
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Re: triad on the 29th