Unfortunately, I happen to strongly agree with Dr. Gray's analysis with respect to the initial guesstimation of Frances' strike on South Florida. As he stated in his discussion, many of the models rely on historical patterns of storms previously taking a similar track. You may recall both Floyd, David, Hugo, and several others veered north just miles off the Bahamian Islands. Unfortunately, those trofs will not come to fruision on this occassion, and therefore, I cannot rely greatly on their anticipitation of a northwestern movement outside 5 days. The "true" history is causing the models to act with a rather false return. Any thoughts on agreements or disagreement? Interested for feedback -- want to shutter up early and not wait til the last minute -- MIAMI