This was emailed to me from a friend around 6 pm.

Looking at the latest satellite images It looks like Hurricane Frances is beginning to undergo a bit of SW shearing. Also some eyewall restructuring still seems to be occurring, so she remains a CAT 4 cyclone with maybe some slight weakening. SW shear should increase as Frances reaches 60 deg. west longitude through approximately 70 deg. west longitude and this may inhibit strengthening to a CAT 5 in the middle term.

The powerful high pressure ridge to it's north continues to strengthen and build west, the cause of Frances' westerly turn earlier today. Earlier I took the liberty of looking at more modeling and what I see is troublesome. I'm seeing a trend of more models coming into agreement with a continued lower latitude westward track for Frances. If this verifies then any low pressure weakness that "may" be left behind by Hurricane Gaston (yes it was a hurricane when it came ashore in S.C.) and future T.S. Hermine could not pull Frances NW-N east of Florida and/or the T & K and Bahama Islands.

But what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it were to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone. A third option, one of bad news that just makes me shudder! A nightmarish CAT 4 strike to deep South Florida and a WNW-NW movement across the peninsula exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico north of Charlotte Harbor.

Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella,
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL