I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Gary Gray pointed out. Frances has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
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Re: Models use of history