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I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Dr. Gray pointed out. Frances has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
Looking at http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
they aren't all that divergant anymore. There seems to be a consencus of model opinion that SE Florida is in for a rough time. As it is still headed due West, it seems more likely the UKMET and NHC and GFS and others are really close even out past 5 days.
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Re: Models use of history