...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL IS
SIMILAR. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.
...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.