Frances seems to be behaving according to plan as I read the NHC discussion today. Sattelite bears out a due west, perhaps slightly south of due west track at this time, but according to NHC that is predicted for up to 72 hrs. What I note in that is this behavior is left of the tracks predicted two -three days ago.
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the GFDL, etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
The models on Wednesday are critical in my opinion...as the synoptic data by then should be fairly firm on the race between the trough and the storm.
Something else to watch as a predictive tool could be the ULL to the storm's NW several hundred miles, visible on the WV. If that lifts out to the north, then that could signal the weakness in the ridge that it will follow...if it stays firm to the west then that could indicate the trend to the south for Frances...
Happy speculating.