| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:14 PM |
|
Re: Frances track
|
Code:
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the GFDL, etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
Very good observation...Both about the 25/75 and the ULL on the WV. I think the 2 TS's have reshaped the tropical ridge somewhat on the west end and that may be why we are seeing the forecasts shifting north. OTOH, as you noted, the current track is still due WEST so someone needs to tell Frances to look north
