Looks like Frances will pass 60W to the south of 20N....inside the Hebert Box benchmark. The NHC has been tending to follow the GFDL model in recent forecasts. Now they are becoming more alarmed since, just as they start to show confidence in a late NW turn, the GFDL is swinging back west. I wonder if this is because the hurricane has been moving almost due west for around 18 hours now, skewing the models. (?) Also, I see the forward speed as doubling since yesterday...though not reflected as such in official statements. But, look at the following past storm plots:

8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)

8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)

I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph. The implications down the road could be enormous. A faster moving storm early on will result in a position farther west before any northward turn occurs..increasing the danger to Florida.
As for intensity, I do believe when recon gets out there this afternoon, they will find she has strengthened...the satellite presentation has much improved. The eye is very small with very intense convection continuing to fire around the center....quite a different picture from last evening.

--Lou