Longtime lurker, first time post. I saw this on the Florida Today website and thought it would be somewhat useful to the discussion. I sure hope she recurves northward, I have a lot of family in that area.

FLORIDA ANGLE
National Hurricane Center computer models show a subtropical ridge blocking a northward turn by Frances through three days.

However, forecasters say the ridge should weaken beyond 72 hours, allowing the hurricane to start its recurveature toward the northwest.

This means a possible close call for Florida. The current 5-day track has Frances in the northern Bahamas east of West Palm Beach on Saturday morning.

The track shows Frances moving northwest, meaning South Florida and possibly Central Florida will escape a direct hit, but will be buffetted by the west side of the hurricane.

In its late morning update today, hurricane center forecaster said how much
the ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of this hurricane.

They also warned that forecasts of more than 72 hours out can have
errors of several hundred miles.

- FLORIDA TODAY