While your reasoning is well taken, and not disagreed with, I would note your positions did not seem to take into account that there was a Northerly component omitted. The diagonal line on the 29th could have been much as long as (and considering the speed changes the NHC noted) the horizontal line of the 30th....there was a change of direction from WNW to W during that period. While it did slow down some, then sped up, I'm not sure it was double...more like a low of 8 and now about 12 which isnt double. But, if you are right, yes, the further and faster it gets west, the more likely Florida gets the prize.

Gotta go teach my class about Hurri...er Computers... You guys kkeep the vigil and I wish all of you out there God's speed and protection.