I'll throw this in......

18Z GFS does what the link above to "1949 hurricane 2" did; a hit north of Miami, and going up the center of Florida. Back to the west again. 12Z CMC, which has been one of the left leaning models, puts her in the center of the south Bahama'a in about three days. The GFS is supposed to take the info from the hurricane hunters and put it to good use about as well as any of the models.

Buddy at work and myself banged heads about Frances last night to see what we could come up with, and we think this could be a space coast hit and follow the coast inland. I see no saving NW turn until it's too late, but if it misses the Cape for some reason, then it won't touch Florida ( with the eye, anyway), but all the piers that we rebuilt after Floyd will be gone again. But my confidence at this point is low to a complete miss.