Rabbit, I don't know where you get your information from, but there is NO connection between current activity and the future formation of an El-Nino. El-Ninos can affect hurricane seasons, but they really have no relation to them. 1997 was quiet BECAUSE of the raging El-Nino that year. The East Pac season was active in 1997 because of it, but at the same time prevented systems from forming in the Atlantic. We didn't have that in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, or this year. Also, ENSO is just one factor in determining how active a hurricane season will be. With the exception of 1997, every year since 1995 has been marginally to very favorable for tropical development. There is no rule that says we have to have a quiet season after a few active ones. Weather does not follow some human guideline just as hurricanes do not read models to tell them where to go.