Just wanted to post a few personal observations after riding out Hurricane Charley in Central Florida (Polk County) -- in which we were extremely lucky that we (my family) did not take the brunt of Charley.

As we all learned, the models can all be in the same general direction and for the most part, most of them were only about 70 miles off as to where landfall would occur. The only one that wasn't was the correct one -- the one that took it right into Ft. Myers/Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. I don't think anybody believed at that point that we could go from a Cat 2 to Cat 4 just before landfall, but it happened. My county is still trying to recover from Charley, and we didn't even take the brunt of the 145mph winds.

We often hear this from the forecasters: "don't just look at the red line because there is a margin of error and it could hit anywhere in between that cone". I never paid much attention to that warning until Charley. Now I take it a lot more serious than I ever did. A 100 miles to the right or to the left of that track makes a huge difference, and here in Florida we learned that on August 13th. As for instensity, they now have it as a Cat IV on Sunday/Monday morning and I'm not sure if they are even speculating as to what may happen when it crosses the very warm gulfstream waters. Also, if it does make a southeast Florida landfall (and I'm not saying it will) we have to take into consideration the Okechobee River. That is a HUGE body of water which would allow Frances to keep her instensity as it crosses the state/goes up the state, whichever happens. If it missed the Okechobee river to the left or to the right, we would still be looking at a very damaging hurricane upon landfall; if it crosses right across the middle, we could be looking at a Cat 4 or 5 as it makes it's way up/across the state of Florida, which would cause catastrophic damage for the entire state.

Am I being an alarmist? Absolutely not. I am looking at what happened with Charley. Charley crossed the state with 100mph winds and some people have nothing left. And THAT was what happened to the INLAND counties, and here in Polk County ALONE we have $700 million of damage. Charley woke us up, Frances might be a nightmare. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being prepared for a possible hit from Frances; actually, if you live along the eastern seaboard and are NOT prepared, it's pretty irresponsible. The NHC can only prepare you; state and local officials can order evacuations; but when it comes right down to it, YOU and you alone are responsible for protecting yourself, your family and your property.

Now...on to the models. Tampa Bays ABC Action New Channel 28 weather gal talked to one of the forecasters from the NHC during the 12 noon newscast. When asked when we could start REALLY looking at the possibility of whether or not we will get a direct hit, he said "Wednesday is going to be a very important day as to what we believe will happen with Frances, and all residents along the southeastern coast, especially Florida, really need to keep tuned in this whole week, especially from Wednesday on."

That comment came directly from the horse's mouth. Believe me, I DO NOT want to experience another hurricane at all. But that doesn't mean I can just ignore it and pretend it isn't out there.

That being said, I have put in an urgent request to Mother Nature to PLEASE kick Frances out to the N/NE; I'll let you know when she gets back with me. Probably around the same time I see the pigs flying across my backyard.