"Hard to see the dark side is isn't it?" Just like yoda says in star wars, its with the model runs with weather.
I waited till the new thread came out to give out my 3 and 5 day forcasts for Frances. Pretty close to track I have this from 3 days back, maybe just a tad slower but still going on to my around 21N and 70W. I have that there in 2 days. Day 3 in se Bahamas around 22.5N and 74.5W. Day 4 25N and 78.5 W and finally Day 5 near 27.5N and 81W. Again from points each way it could be anywhere from 50miles each side on day 3 I forcast and on days 4-5 up to 100miles each side. So everyone from Key Largo N could be affected.
Why is this my forcasted position? Dynamics in the atmosphere with water vapor showings and model runs continue to support this direction. As I mentioned to Hank on here I dont see a strong trough like Floyd encounterd to pull this NNW until it gets past day 5. NHC also notes this now. Now in near term, a general W path with WNW wobbles should continue into tomorrow with the afternoon becoming more WNW around the extreme SW side of the ridge over the Atlantic. By day 3 (Thurs) the question on where it goes will happen. This is due to the ridge placement, strength, and position of the hurricane. With a trough expected to develop over the central U.S and dive southward on days 3-4 the ridge over the atlantic might extend more W into the SE and mid Alantic states. This would cause a path more WNW (as I expect) just SE florida and up or across the state. The trough will continue slowly E into the eastern U.S. down to the lower miss valley and gulf coast by day 5 allowing more NW then N movement. This is by days 5 thru 7 as all can see in GFS model runs. Now currently ahead of Frances there is a upper trough in the bahamas moving w and should weaken but it will also help influence the outflow of Frances and also helping the wnw motion. If the upper trough stays alittle stonger then forcasts and/or slows down, it could during days 2-3, turn Frances more NW and the models will adjust to that. That is possible i should note but not favored.
So for now as posted above that is my placements and threatning the SE coast of florida by late Friday night. Storm could still by day 5 then eigther parrel the coast from WPB up to Daytona or come inland and N of Tampa later day 6, but I wont go out no more then sending it or coming close to WPB for Sat. Will post new forcast on weds. scottsvb