Scary thought.. I really hope we don't see her come ashore, hook right, and continue right up the middle of the state.

If I read your message correctly, are you suggesting a more northery turn like the current UKMet model suggests?

A Cat3 with Tampa/St. Pete on the west side as she moves to the Gulf could cause major flooding problem here. I haven't seen any models suggesting the impact of such a case - just general models showing a cain coming in off the Gulf. But Josephine in 1996 (5.5' surge) is one I remember with a ton of flooding. I would guess Frances could easily top 5.5' of surge here.